Arc Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Scenarios and Information for Policymakers

John S Daniel, Stefan Reimann, Paul Ashford, Eric L Fleming, Ryan Hossaini, Megan J Lickley, Robyn Schofield, Helen Walter-Terrinoni

2022-01-01

Coral-reef-derived dimethyl sulfide and the climatic impact of the loss of coral reefs

SL Fiddes, MT Woodhouse, TP Lane, R Schofield

2021-04-19

Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a naturally occurring aerosol precursor gas which plays an important role in the global sulfur budget, a..

Characterization of aerosols over the Great Barrier Reef: The influence of transported continental sources

Z Chen, R Schofield, P Rayner, T Zhang, C Liu, C Vincent, S Fiddes, RG Ryan, J Alroe, ZD Ristovski, RS Humphries, MD Keywood, J Ward, C Paton-Walsh, T Naylor, X Shu

2019-11-10

The rapid environmental changes in Australia prompt a more thorough investigation of the influence of transportation, local emissi..

Higher frequency of Central Pacific El Nino events in recent decades relative to past centuries

Mandy B Freund, Benjamin J Henley, David J Karoly, Helen V McGregor, Nerilie J Abram, Dietmar Dommenget

2019-06-01

El Niño events differ substantially in their spatial pattern and intensity. Canonical Eastern Pacific El Niño events have sea surf..

Simulations of orographic precipitation in the Snowy Mountains of Southeastern Australia

F Sarmadi, Y Huang, G Thompson, ST Siems, MJ Manton

2019-05-01

Wintertime cold fronts generate much of the precipitation in the Snowy Mountains of south eastern Australia where orographic cloud..

The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century

Roland Eichinger, Simone Dietmueller, Hella Garny, Petr Sacha, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Eugene Rozanov, Laura Revell, David A Plummer, Patrick Joeckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Douglas E Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Kane Adam Stone

2019-01-24

Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st centu..

Coupled Atmophere-Fire Simulations of the Black Saturday Kilmor East Wildfires With the Unified Model

Jussi Toivanen, Chermelle B Engel, Michael J Reeder, Todd P Lane, Laura Davies, Stuart Webster, Scott Wales

2019-01-01

A model for the spread of a wildfire is developed within the U.K. Met Office Unified Model (UM) and used to simulate the Kilmore E..

The Antarctic ozone hole during 2014

Paul B Krummel, Andrew R Klekociuk, Matthew B Tully, H Peter Gies, Simon P Alexander, Paul J Fraser, Stuart Henderson, Robyn Schofield, Jonathan D Shanklin, Kane A Stone

2019-01-01

<jats:p>We review the 2014 Antarctic ozone hole, making use of a variety of ground-based and space-based measurements of ozone and..

The Antarctic ozone hole during 2015 and 2016

Matthew B Tully, Andrew R Klekociuk, Paul B Krummel, H Peter Gies, Simon P Alexander, Paul J Fraser, Stuart Henderson, Robyn Schofield, Jonathon D Shanklin, Kane A Stone

2019-01-01

<jats:p>We reviewed the 2015 and 2016 Antarctic ozone holes, making use of a variety of ground-based and spacebased measurements o..

The Antarctic ozone hole during 2017

Andrew R Klekociuk, Matthew B Tully, Paul B Krummel, Oleksandr Evtushevsky, Volodymyr Kravchenko, Stuart Henderson, Simon P Alexander, Richard R Querel, Sylvia Nichol, Dan Smale, Gennadi P Milinevsky, Asen Grytsai, Paul J Fraser, Xiangdong Zheng, H Peter Gies, Robyn Schofield, Jonathan D Shanklin

2019-01-01

<jats:p>We review the 2017 Antarctic ozone hole, making use of various meteorological reanalyses, and in-situ, satellite and groun..

Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry-climate model

Laura E Revell, Andrea Stenke, Fiona Tummon, Aryeh Feinberg, Eugene Rozanov, Thomas Peter, N Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T Archibald, Neal Butchart, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Joeckel, Douglas Kinnison, Martine Michou, Olaf Morgenstern, Fiona M O'Connor, Luke D Oman, Giovanni Pitari, David A Plummer, Robyn Schofield

2018-11-13

Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry-climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone co..

Daytime HONO, NO2 and aerosol distributions from MAX-DOAS observations in Melbourne

Robert G Ryan, Steve Rhodes, Matthew Tully, Stephen Wilson, Nicholas Jones, Udo Friess, Robyn Schofield

2018-10-02

Toxic nitrogen oxides produced by high temperature combustion are prevalent in urban environments, contributing to a significant h..

Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium

Christoph Datwyler, Raphael Neukom, Nerilie J Abram, Ailie JE Gallant, Martin Grosjean, Martin Jacques-Coper, David J Karoly, Ricardo Villalba

2018-09-01

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric interannual variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extra-t..

Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes

Andrea J Dittus, David J Karoly, Markus G Donat, Sophie C Lewis, Lisa V Alexander

2018-09-01

The oceans are a well-known source of natural variability in the climate system, although their ability to account for inter-annua..

Attributing high-impact extreme events across timescales-a case study of four different types of events

Friederike EL Otto, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Sihan Li, Andrew King, Heidi Cullen

2018-08-01

Increasing likelihoods of extreme weather events is the most noticeable and damaging manifestation of anthropogenic climate change..

How Uneven Are Changes to Impact-Relevant Climate Hazards in a 1.5 °C World and Beyond?

LJ Harrington, D Frame, AD King, FEL Otto

2018-07-16

In the last decade, climate mitigation policy has galvanized around staying below specified thresholds of global mean temperature,..

Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees C

Andrew D King, Markus G Donat, Sophie C Lewis, Benjamin J Henley, Daniel M Mitchell, Peter A Stott, Erich M Fischer, David J Karoly

2018-07-01

The benefits of limiting global warming to the lower Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C are substantial with respect to population e..

Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations

SS Dhomse, D Kinnison, MP Chipperfield, RJ Salawitch, I Cionni, MI Hegglin, NL Abraham, H Akiyoshi, AT Archibald, EM Bednarz, S Bekki, P Braesicke, N Butchart, M Dameris, M Deushi, S Frith, SC Hardiman, B Hassler, LW Horowitz, R Hu

2018-06-15

We analyse simulations performed for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) to estimate the return dates of the stratospher..

Stratospheric Injection of Brominated Very Short-Lived Substances: Aircraft Observations in the Western Pacific and Representation in Global Models

Pamela A Wales, Ross J Salawitch, Julie M Nicely, Daniel C Anderson, Timothy P Canty, Sunil Baidar, Barbara Dix, Theodore K Koenig, Rainer Volkamer, Dexian Chen, L Gregory Huey, David J Tanner, Carlos A Cuevas, Rafael P Fernandez, Douglas E Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alfonso Saiz-Lopez, Elliot L Atlas, Samuel R Hall, Maria A Navarro

2018-05-27

We quantify the stratospheric injection of brominated very short‐lived substances (VSLS) based on aircraft observations acquired i..

Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations

Clara Orbe, Huang Yang, Darryn W Waugh, Guang Zeng, Olaf Morgenstern, Douglas E Kinnison, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Simone Tilmes, David A Plummer, John F Scinocca, Beatrice Josse, Virginie Marecal, Patrick Joeckel, Luke D Oman, Susan E Strahan, Makoto Deushi, Taichu Y Tanaka, Kohei Yoshida, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita

2018-05-25

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projectin..

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

Simone Dietmueller, Roland Eichinger, Hella Garny, Thomas Birner, Harald Boenisch, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Daniele Visioni, Andrea Stenke, Laura Revell, Eugene Rozanov, David A Plummer, John Scinocca, Patrick Joeckel, Luke Oman, Makoto Deushi, Shibata Kiyotaka, Douglas E Kinnison, Rolando Garcia, Olaf Morgenstern

2018-05-14

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulat..

Assimilating solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence into the terrestrial biosphere model BETHY-SCOPE v1.0: model description and information content

Alexander J Norton, Peter J Rayner, Ernest N Koffi, Marko Scholze

2018-04-17

The synthesis of model and observational information using data assimilation can improve our understanding of the terrestrial carb..

Attribution Analysis of the Ethiopian Drought of 2015

Sjoukje Philip, Sarah F Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Friederike Otto, Sarah O'Keefe, Karsten Haustein, Andrew King, Abiy Zegeye, Zewdu Eshetu, Kinfe Hailemariam, Roop Singh, Eddie Jjemba, Chris Funk, Heidi Cullen

2018-03-01

In northern and central Ethiopia, 2015 was a very dry year. Rainfall was only from one-half to three-quarters of the usual amount,..

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations

Olaf Morgenstern, Kane A Stone, Robyn Schofield, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Yousuke Yamashita, Douglas E Kinnison, Rolando R Garcia, Kengo Sudo, David A Plummer, John Scinocca, Luke D Oman, Michael E Manyin, Guang Zeng, Eugene Rozanov, Andrea Stenke, Laura E Revell, Giovanni Pitari, Eva Mancini, Glauco Di Genova, Daniele Visioni

2018-01-29

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the ..

AUSTRAL - Australia’s Urban Supersite neTwork for Research on Air quaLity

Sonya Fiddes, Robyn Schofield

2018-01-01

Scoping Pitch for a Real time, high temporal and spatial observations of Australia’s urban air quality for environmental and healt..

Cloud, precipitation and radiation responses to large perturbations in global dimethyl sulfide

Sonya L Fiddes, Matthew T Woodhouse, Zebedee Nicholls, Todd P Lane, Robyn Schofield

2018-01-01

Natural aerosol emission represents one of the largest uncertainties in our understanding of the radiation budget. Sulfur emitted ..

The first 300-year streamflow reconstruction of a high-elevation river in Chile using tree rings

P Barria, MC Peel, KJE Walsh, A Muñoz

2018-01-01

In central Chile, increasing demand for water and decreasing runoff volumes due to drier conditions have placed catchments in this..

The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia

Sandra Richard, Kevin JE Walsh

2018-01-01

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over..

The spatial distribution of rainfall extremes and the influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation

Kate Saunders, Alec G Stephenson, Peter G Taylor, David Karoly

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall does not occur in spatial isolation. Rainfall occurs in a region, and within that region nearby locations are lik..

Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions

M Freund, BJ Henley, DJ Karoly, KJ Allen, PJ Baker

2017-11-30

Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit th..

Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming

AD King, DJ Karoly

2017-11-13

There is an international effort to attempt to limit global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, however, there is a lac..

Attributing Changing Rates of Temperature Record Breaking to Anthropogenic Influences

AD King

2017-11-01

Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record breaking is changin..

Mechanisms linking global 5-Day waves to tropical convection

MJ King, MC Wheeler, TP Lane

2017-11-01

Reanalysis data and satellite-derived rainfall measurements are examined to determine possible mechanisms linking the "5 day" Ross..

Evaluation of the regional climate response in Australia to large-scale climate modes in the historical NARCliM simulations

L Fita, JP Evans, D Argüeso, A King, Y Liu

2017-10-01

NARCliM (New South Wales (NSW)/Australian Capital Territory (ACT) Regional Climate Modelling project) is a regional climate modeli..

Insights into convective momentum transport and its parametrization from idealized simulations of organized convection

RL Badlan, TP Lane, MW Moncrieff, C Jakob

2017-10-01

Royal Meteorological Society Deep convection is a multiscale process that influences the budgets of heat, moisture and momentum si..

Scatterometer estimates of the tropical sea-breeze circulation near Darwin, with comparison to regional models

AL Brown, CL Vincent, TP Lane, E Short, H Nguyen

2017-10-01

In tropical coastal environments, simulating the diurnal cycle of wind and precipitation in numerical weather and climate models p..

Stratospheric ozone intrusion events and their impacts on tropospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere

Jesse W Greenslade, Simon P Alexander, Robyn Schofield, Jenny A Fisher, Andrew K Klekociuk

2017-09-01

Stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) provides an important natural source of ozone to the upper troposphere, but the charac..

Time-varying spectral characteristics of ENSO over the Last Millennium

P Hope, BJ Henley, J Gergis, J Brown, H Ye

2017-09-01

The characteristics of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) spectra over the Last Millennium are examined to characterise variabili..

Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?

PA Stott, DJ Karoly, FW Zwiers

2017-08-28

© 2017 The Author(s) The science of event attribution meets a mounting demand for reliable and timely information about the links ..

Australia emits mercury at double the global average

Robyn Schofield

2017-08-17

Pacific decadal climate variability: Indices, patterns and tropical-extratropical interactions

BJ Henley

2017-08-01

Pacific decadal variability (PDV) plays a critical role in the climate system. Here I present a review of indices and patterns of ..

Summertime planetary wave resonance in the Northern and Southern hemispheres

K Kornhuber, V Petoukhov, D Karoly, S Petri, S Rahmstorf, D Coumou

2017-08-01

Slow-moving planetary waves of high amplitudes are often associated with persistent surface weather conditions. This persistence c..

Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming

B Timbal, S Fiddes, JR Brown

2017-08-01

South-Eastern Australia and, in particular the state of Victoria, has experienced record deficits of rainfall over the last 20 yea..

A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era

J Emile-Geay, NP McKay, DS Kaufman, L Von Gunten, J Wang, KJ Anchukaitis, NJ Abram, JA Addison, MAJ Curran, MN Evans, BJ Henley, Z Hao, B Martrat, HV McGregor, R Neukom, GT Pederson, B Stenni, K Thirumalai, JP Werner, C Xu

2017-07-11

Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the contex..

Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °c and 2 °c of global warming

AD King, DJ Karoly, BJ Henley

2017-06-01

To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. How..

Simulated ocean response to tropical cyclones: The effect of a novel parameterization of mixing from unbroken surface waves

L Stoney, K Walsh, AV Babanin, M Ghantous, P Govekar, I Young

2017-06-01

Tropical cyclones dissipate large amounts of energy into the upper ocean, locally enhancing vertical mixing and cooling the sea su..

The effect on simulated ocean climate of a parameterization of unbroken wave-induced mixing incorporated into the k-epsilon mixing scheme

K Walsh, P Govekar, AV Babanin, M Ghantous, P Spence, E Scoccimarro

2017-06-01

A new parameterization of mixing processes in the upper ocean is tested in a ¼° resolution global ocean climate model. The paramet..

A 10-Year Austral Summer Climatology of Observed and Modeled Intraseasonal, Mesoscale, and Diurnal Variations over the Maritime Continent

Claire L Vincent, Todd P Lane

2017-05-15

The Maritime Continent is one of the wettest regions on the planet and has been shown to be important for global budgets of heat a..

Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 years

J Gergis, BJ Henley

2017-04-01

This study presents an analysis of three palaeoclimate rainfall reconstructions from the Southern Hemisphere regions of south-east..

Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Benjamin J Henley, Gerald Meehl, Scott B Power, Chris K Folland, Andrew D King, Jaclyn N Brown, David J Karoly, Francois Delage, Ailie JE Gallant, Mandy Freund, Raphael Neukom

2017-04-01

Accelerated warming and hiatus periods in the long-term rise of Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) have, in recent decades, be..

Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

Olaf Morgenstern, Michaela I Hegglin, Eugene Rozanov, Fiona M O'Connor, N Luke Abraham, Hideharu Akiyoshi, Alexander T Archibald, Slimane Bekki, Neal Butchart, Martyn P Chipperfield, Makoto Deushi, Sandip S Dhomse, Rolando R Garcia, Steven C Hardiman, Larry W Horowitz, Patrick Joeckel, Beatrice Josse, Douglas Kinnison, Meiyun Lin, Eva Mancini

2017-02-13

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry–climate and chemistry transport models that are used within phase 1 of the Ch..

Analysis of within and between-GCM uncertainties of runoff projections in Mediterranean-like catchments

Pilar A Barria, Murray C Peel, Kevin JE Walsh, Rene Garreaud

2017-01-01

22. Climate change and El Niño increase likelihood of Indonesian heat and drought

AD King, GJ Van Oldenborgh, DJ Karoly

2016-12-01

El Niño and human-induced climate change have substantially increased the likelihood of rainfall deficits and high temperatures, r..

25. The roles of climate change and El Niño in the record low rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia

DJ Karoly, MT Black, MR Grose, AD King

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change and El Niño made small but significant contributions to increasing the likelihood of record low rainf..

5-day-wave interactions with tropical precipitation in CMIP5 models

MJ King, MC Wheeler, TP Lane

2016-12-01

The 5-day Rossby-Haurwitz wave is unlike other large-scale wave modes that interact with tropical rainfall in that associated rain..

Southern Australia's warmest October on record: The role of ENSO and climate change

Mitchell T Black, David J Karoly

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change was found to have a substantial influence on southern Australia’s extreme heat in October 2015. The r..

Contrasting tropical cyclone and non-tropical cyclone related rainfall drop size distribution at Darwin, Australia

A Deo, KJE Walsh

2016-11-15

In this study the rainfall drop size distribution (DSD) during the passage of seven tropical cyclones (TCs) over Darwin is compare..

A local index of Maritime Continent intraseasonal variability based on rain rates over the land and sea

CL Vincent, TP Lane, MC Wheeler

2016-09-16

A local index for describing intraseasonal variability over the Maritime Continent is developed. The index is based on the ratio o..

The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand

MT Black, DJ Karoly, SM Rosier, SM Dean, AD King, NR Massey, SN Sparrow, A Bowery, D Wallom, RG Jones, FEL Otto, MR Allen

2016-09-15

A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extr..

The attribution question (Commentary)

Friederike EL Otto, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Jonathan Eden, Peter A Stott, David J Karoly, Myles R Allen

2016-09-01

Understanding how the overall risks of extreme events are changing in a warming world requires both a thermodynamic perspective an..

Early onset of industrial-era warming across the oceans and continents

NJ Abram, HV McGregor, JE Tierney, MN Evans, NP McKay, DS Kaufman, K Thirumalai, B Martrat, H Goosse, SJ Phipps, EJ Steig, KH Kilbourne, CP Saenger, J Zinke, G Leduc, JA Addison, PG Mortyn, MS Seidenkrantz, MA Sicre, K Selvaraj

2016-08-24

The evolution of industrial-era warming across the continents and oceans provides a context for future climate change and is impor..

A case of an undular bore and prefrontal precipitation in the Australian Alps

Campbell D Watson, Todd P Lane

2016-07-01

This study explores the mesoscale processes that led to the development of two prefrontal precipitation events in the Australian A..

ENSO teleconnections with Australian rainfall in coupled model simulations of the last millennium

JR Brown, P Hope, J Gergis, BJ Henley

2016-07-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation is the major source of interannual rainfall variability in the Australian region, with the strongest ..

Evolution of the diurnal precipitation cycle with the passage of a Madden-Julian oscillation event through the Maritime Continent

CL Vincent, TP Lane

2016-05-01

Changes in the diurnal precipitation cycle as the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) propagates through the Maritime Continent are in..

Long-term stationarity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia

Linden Ashcroft, Joelle Gergis, David John Karoly

2016-05-01

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon plays a large role in the modulation of Aaustralian rainfall, particularly in t..

Unexpectedly high ultrafine aerosol concentrations above East Antarctic sea ice

RS Humphries, AR Klekociuk, R Schofield, M Keywood, J Ward, SR Wilson

2016-02-25

Better characterisation of aerosol processes in pristine, natural environments, such as Antarctica, have recently been shown to le..

A case study of a transported bromine explosion event in the Canadian High Arctic

X Zhao, K Strong, C Adams, R Schofield, X Yang, A Richter, U Friess, AM Blechschmidt, JH Koo

2016-01-16

Ozone depletion events in the polar troposphere have been linked to extremely high concentrations of bromine, known as bromine exp..

A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes

AJ Dittus, DJ Karoly, SC Lewis, LV Alexander, MG Donat

2016-01-01

The skill of eight climate models in simulating the variability and trends in the observed areal extent of daily temperature and p..

Australasian temperature reconstructions spanning the Last Millennium

J Gergis, R Neukom, AJE Gallant, DJ Karoly

2016-01-01

Multiproxy warm season (September-February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land-ocean region of Austra..

Evaluation of the ACCESS - chemistry-climate model for the Southern Hemisphere

Kane A Stone, Olaf Morgenstern, David J Karoly, Andrew R Klekociuk, W John French, N Luke Abraham, Robyn Schofield

2016-01-01

Chemistry–climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth system. In partic..

Evaluation of TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis during the passage of Tropical Cyclones over Fiji

Anil Deo, Kevin JE Walsh

2016-01-01

Fiji is prone to the devastating effects of heavy rainfall during the passage of tropical cyclones (TCs) and as such accurate meas..

Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions

MG Donat, AD King, JT Overpeck, LV Alexander, I Durre, DJ Karoly

2016-01-01

Unusually hot summer conditions occurred during the 1930s over the central United States and undoubtedly contributed to the severi..

The Hole in the Ozone: The environmental issue we managed to fix* and why we still need to be sunsmart

Roger Dargaville, Robyn Schofield

2015-12-21

An improved diagnostic for summertime rainfall along the eastern seaboard of Australia

MT Black, TP Lane

2015-12-01

The eastern seaboard of Australia (ESB) is a unique climate entity. A region of complex topography bound by the coastline and the ..

A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

BJ Henley, J Gergis, DJ Karoly, S Power, J Kennedy, CK Folland

2015-12-01

A new index is developed for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, termed the IPO Tripole Index (TPI). The IPO is associated with ..

Attribution of exceptional mean sea level pressure anomalies south of Australia in August 2014

MR Grose, MT Black, JS Risbey, DJ Karoly

2015-12-01

It is likely that human influences on climate increased the odds of the extreme high pressure anomalies south of Australia in Augu..

Increased likelihood of Brisbane, Australia, G20 heat event due to anthropogenic climate change

AD King, MT Black, DJ Karoly, MG Donat

2015-12-01

Climate model simulations for 2014 indicate anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of hot and very hot ..

The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the adelaide and Melbourne, Australia, heat waves of January 2014

MT Black, DJ Karoly, AD King

2015-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change very likely increased the likelihood of prolonged heat waves like that experienced in Adelaide in Jan..

Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low-Convective Inhibition Environment. Part I: Upshear Propagation

Todd P Lane, Mitchell W Moncrieff

2015-11-01

Dynamical models of organized mesoscale convective systems have identified the important features that help maintain their overarc..

Uncertainties in runoff projections in southwestern Australian catchments using a global climate model with perturbed physics

P Barria, KJE Walsh, MC Peel, D Karoly

2015-10-01

Future projections of water supply under climate change scenarios are fundamental for efficient water resource planning. However, ..

The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

AD King, MG Donat, EM Fischer, E Hawkins, LV Alexander, DJ Karoly, AJ Dittus, SC Lewis, SE Perkins

2015-09-10

Determining the time of emergence of climates altered from their natural state by anthropogenic influences can help inform the dev..

Association of convection with the 5-Day Rossby-Haurwitz wave

MJ King, MC Wheeler, TP Lane

2015-09-01

The seasonality, regionality, and nature of the association between tropical convection and the 5-day wavenumber-1 Rossby-Haurwitz..

Global detection and analysis of coastline-associated rainfall using an objective pattern recognition technique

M Bergemann, C Jakob, TP Lane

2015-09-01

Coastally associated rainfall is a common feature, especially in tropical and subtropical regions. However, it has been difficult ..

Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia’s extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent?

SC Lewis, DJ Karoly

2015-08-26

Australia experienced much above average rainfall in association with strong, extended La Niña conditions during 2010–2012. Was th..

Nonlinear processes reinforce extreme Indian Ocean Dipole events

B Ng, W Cai, K Walsh, A Santoso

2015-06-26

Under global warming, climate models show an almost three-fold increase in extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) events by 2..

The impact of overshooting deep convection on local transport and mixing in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS)

W Frey, R Schofield, P Hoor, D Kunkel, F Ravegnani, A Ulanovsky, S Viciani, F D'Amato, TP Lane

2015-06-12

In this study we examine the simulated downward transport and mixing of stratospheric air into the upper tropical troposphere as o..

Hurricanes and climate: The U.S. Clivar working group on hurricanes

KJE Walsh, SJ Camargo, GA Vecchi, AS Daloz, J Elsner, K Emanuel, M Horn, YK Lim, M Roberts, C Patricola, E Scoccimarro, AH Sobel, S Strazzo, G Villarini, M Wehner, M Zhao, JP Kossin, T La Row, K Oouchi, S Schubert

2015-06-01

Although a theory of the climatology of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, high-resolution climate models can now simulat..

Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences

AD King, GJ Van Oldenborgh, DJ Karoly, SC Lewis, H Cullen

2015-05-01

In 2014, Central England experienced its warmest year in a record extending back to 1659. Using both state-of-the-art climate mode..

The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5

AD King, MG Donat, LV Alexander, DJ Karoly

2015-05-01

Australian rainfall is strongly influenced by El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO). The relationship between ENSO and rainfall in e..

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

MC Peel, R Srikanthan, TA McMahon, DJ Karoly

2015-04-08

Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between globa..

A new Dobson Umkehr ozone profile retrieval method optimising information content and resolution

K Stone, MB Tully, SK Rhodes, R Schofield

2015-03-04

The standard Dobson Umkehr methodology to retrieve coarse-resolution ozone profiles used by the National Oceanographic and Atmosph..

The consequences of a local approach in statistical models of convection on its large-scale coherence

Jackson Tan, Christian Jakob, Todd P Lane

2015-02-16

Organized tropical convection is a crucial mechanism in the climate system, but its representation in climate models through param..

Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation

TA McMahon, MC Peel, DJ Karoly

2015-01-21

The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate ..

A multiregion assessment of observed changes in the areal extent of temperature and precipitation extremes

AJ Dittus, DJ Karoly, SC Lewis, LV Alexander

2015-01-01

This study examines trends in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes across five large-scale regions using th..

First quasi-Lagrangian in situ measurements of Antarctic Polar springtime ozone: Observed ozone loss rates from the Concordiasi long-duration balloon campaign

R Schofield, LM Avallone, LE Kalnajs, A Hertzog, I Wohltmann, M Rex

2015-01-01

We present ozone measurements made using state-of-the-art ultraviolet photometers onboard three long-duration stratospheric balloo..

Long-Lived Mesoscale Systems in a Low-Convective Inhibition Environment. Part II: Downshear Propagation

Mitchell W Moncrieff, Todd P Lane

2015-01-01

Part II of this study of long-lived convective systems in a tropical environment focuses on forward-tilted, downshear-propagating ..

The Antarctic ozone hole during 2013

AR Klekociuk, PB Krummel, MB Tully, HP Gies, SP Alexander, PJ Fraser, SI Henderson, J Javorniczky, JD Shanklin, R Schofield, KA Stone

2015-01-01

We review the 2013 Antarctic ozone hole, making use of various ground-based, in-situ and remotely-sensed ozone measurements, groun..

Tracking Scheme Dependence of Simulated Tropical Cyclone Response to Idealized Climate Simulations

Michael Horn, Kevin Walsh, Ming Zhao, Suzana J Camargo, Enrico Scoccimarro, Hiroyuki Murakami, Hui Wang, Andrew Ballinger, Arun Kumar, Daniel A Shaevitz, Jeffrey A Jonas, Kazuyoshi Oouchi

2014-12-01

Future tropical cyclone activity is a topic of great scientific and societal interest. In the absence of a climate theory of tropi..

A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia, 1788-1859

Linden Ashcroft, Joelle Gergis, David John Karoly

2014-11-01

<jats:p>There is a significant lack of historical climate data in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the northern latitudes. To a..

CLIMATE CHANGE TURNS AUSTRALIA'S 2013 BIG DRY INTO A YEAR OF RECORD-BREAKING HEAT

Andrew D King, David J Karoly, Markus G Donat, Lisa V Alexander

2014-09-01

THE ROLE OF ANTHROPOGENIC FORCING IN THE RECORD 2013 AUSTRALIA-WIDE ANNUAL AND SPRING TEMPERATURES

Sophie C Lewis, David J Karoly

2014-09-01

Convectively generated gravity waves simulated by NAM-SCA

JI Yano, TP Lane

2014-08-16

Convectively generated gravity waves are an unresolved process in global models. However, parameterization of their effects is dif..

Human-induced rainfall changes

David J Karoly

2014-08-01

Southwest Australia has become increasingly dry over the past century. Simulations with a high-resolution global climate model sho..

Gravity waves generated by convection during TWP-ICE: 2. High-frequency gravity waves

MCN Hankinson, MJ Reeder, TP Lane

2014-05-16

High-frequency gravity waves are analyzed using radiosonde soundings taken during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Exper..

Gravity waves generated by convection during TWP-ICE: I. inertia-gravity waves

MCN Hankinson, MJ Reeder, TP Lane

2014-05-16

Gravity waves are analyzed in radiosonde soundings taken during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) ca..

Intensity of thunderstorm-generated turbulence revealed by large-eddy simulation

TP Lane, RD Sharman

2014-03-28

Thunderstorms are characterized by turbulent processes that constitute an important aviation hazard and cause vertical transport o..

Consistent trends in a modified climate extremes index in the United States, Europe, and Australia

AJE Gallant, DJ Karoly, KL Gleason

2014-02-01

The utility of a combined modified climate extremes index (mCEI) is presented for monitoring coherent trends in multiple types of ..

Ground-based observations of overshooting convection during the tropical warm pool-international cloud experiment

MEE Hassim, TP Lane, PT May

2014-01-27

This study uses gridded radar data to investigate the properties of deep convective storms that penetrate the tropical tropopause ..

A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979-2011: Inter-annual variability and ENSO influence

JT Allen, DJ Karoly

2014-01-01

Severe thunderstorms present a significant threat to property and life in Australia during the warm season (September to April). H..

An investigation of some unexpected frost day increases in Southern Australia

AJ Dittus, DJ Karoly, SC Lewis, LV Alexander

2014-01-01

Understanding changes in frost events is vital given their impacts on crops. This study examines monthly frost day trends in south..

Assessment of forced responses of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) 1.3 in CMIP5 historical detection and attribution experiments

SC Lewis, DJ Karoly

2014-01-01

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) coupled climate model version 1.3 participated in phase five ..

Further sensitivities of orographic precipitation to terrain geometry in idealized simulations

CD Watson, TP Lane

2014-01-01

This study examines how variations to the nondimensional mountain height Ĥ and the horizontal aspect ratio β of a straight ridge a..

Future australian severe thunderstorm environments. Part I: A novel evaluation and climatology of convective parameters from two climate models for the late twentieth century

JT Allen, DJ Karoly, KJ Walsh

2014-01-01

The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based o..

Future Australian severe thunderstorm environments. Part II: The influence of a strongly warming climate on convective environments

JT Allen, DJ Karoly, KJ Walsh

2014-01-01

The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two globa..

Quantitative estimates of anthropogenic contributions to extreme national and State monthly, seasonal and annual average temperatures for Australia

SC Lewis, DJ Karoly, M Yu

2014-01-01

Extreme event attribution studies can provide valuable information for assessing the risks and costs of future climate change. How..

The generation of near-cloud turbulence in idealized simulations

Dragana Zovko-Rajak, Todd P Lane

2014-01-01

This study explores the generation of turbulence in the upper outflow regions of simulated idealized mesoscale convective systems...

World climate research programme special workshop on climatic effects of ozone depletion in the southern hemisphere

PO Canziani, A O'Neill, R Schofield, M Raphael, GJ Marshall, G Redaelli

2014-01-01

A World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Special Workshop entitled the 'Climatic effects of ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisph..

Evaluation of TMPA 3B42 daily precipitation estimates of tropical cyclone rainfall over Australia

Y Chen, EE Ebert, KJE Walsh, NE Davidson

2013-11-16

Heavy rain from tropical cyclone (TC) landfall has extensive impacts on human life and society. Its estimation is subject to consi..

Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models

SC Lewis, DJ Karoly

2013-11-01

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a useful index of climatic change in addition to mean temperature changes. Observational record..

Toward an understanding of vertical momentum transports in cloud-system-resolving model simulations of multiscale tropical convection

TA Shaw, TP Lane

2013-10-24

This study examines the characteristics of convective momentum transport (CMT) and gravity wave momentum transport (GWMT) in two-d..

Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-12 Extreme Rainfall over Southeast Australia

AD King, SC Lewis, SE Perkins, LV Alexander, MG Donat, DJ Karoly, MT Black

2013-09-01

On the identification of the large-scale properties of tropical convection using cloud regimes

J Tan, C Jakob, TP Lane

2013-09-01

The use of cloud regimes in identifying tropical convection and the associated large-scale atmospheric properties is investigated...

Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations

RogerW Bodman, Peter J Rayner, David J Karoly

2013-08-01

The future behaviour of the carbon cycle is a major contributor to uncertainty in temperature projections for the twenty-first cen..

Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013

SC Lewis, DJ Karoly

2013-07-28

Anthropogenic contributions to the record hot 2013 Australian summer are investigated using a suite of climate model experiments. ..

Statistical assessment of tropical convection-permitting model simulations using a cell-tracking algorithm

S Caine, TP Lane, PT May, C Jakob, ST Siems, MJ Manton, J Pinto

2013-02-01

This study presents a method for comparing convection-permitting model simulations to radar observations using an innovative objec..

An attribution study of the heavy rainfall over eastern Australia in March 2012

null Christidis, null Stott, DJ Karoly, null Ciavarella

2013-01-01

Australia’s climate in a four degree world

P Whetton, D Karoly, I Watterson, L Webb, F Drost, D Kirono, K McInnes

2013-01-01

What climate change would Australia see if global warming reaches 4°C on average (14°C global warming) above pre-industrial levels..

Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Ailie JE Gallant, Steven J Phipps, David J Karoly, A Brett Mullan, Andrew M Lorrey

2013-01-01

The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleo..

Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations

R Bodman, P Rayner, DJ Karoly

2013-01-01

Mesoscale modelling of two 'drying events': Governing processes and implications for fire danger

RL Badlan, TP Lane, GA Mills, S Caine

2012-12-01

This study uses mesoscale modelling to examine the processes underlying two 'drying events' and their implications for fire danger..

Evaluating global climate responses to different forcings using simple indices

F Drost, D Karoly

2012-08-28

Previous studies have shown that various climate indices based on surface temperature can be used in detection and attribution stu..

Recent Advances in the Understanding of Near-Cloud Turbulence

Todd P Lane, Robert D Sharman, Stanley B Trier, Robert G Fovell, John K Williams

2012-01-01

Anyone who has flown in a commercial aircraft is familiar with turbulence. Unexpected encounters with turbulence pose a safety ris..

The meteorology of Black Saturday

CB Engel, TP Lane, MJ Reeder, M Rezny

2012-01-01

The meteorological conditions are investigated over the state of Victoria, Australia on 7 February 2009, the day of the 'Black Sat..

A severe thunderstorm climatology for Australia and associated thunderstorm environments

JT Allen, DJ Karoly, GA Mills

2011-01-01

Severe thunderstorms can present a significant threat to life and property in Australia. A unique and broad database of severe thu..

The Copenhagen Diagnosis

DJ Karoly

2011-01-01